JUBILEES
GENERAL QUESTIONS OF COMPLEX SAFETY
Introduction. Analysis of contemporary trends and issues on improving regulatory oversight of activities in Europe and Russia showed that the society has shown increasing concern about the high risk of harm to economic activities in the form of lost profit from inaccurate and excessive regulation of relations in the model of the control and supervision activities, which are developing a variety of programs that bring private yet only fragmentary positive results, but they change the inaccurate and excessive essence of traditional control and supervisory activities.
The main (analytical) part. In Europe and in Russia there is implemented a relative assessment of risk of harm (the establishment of the conditional risk categories) in the frequency of scheduled audits, which was called “a risk-based approach”. A conditional approach to assessing the risk of harm to protected values cannot lead to clarification of the subj ect and elimination of the excessive nature of control and supervision.
Significant practical results of the reform of control and supervision will be achieved only as a result of a large-scale transition to a risk-oriented model of control and supervision, the essence of which is to identify mandatory requirements based on the calculation and scenario assessments of the risks of harm to protected values.
Theoretical and practical bases the risk-oriented model of control and supervision in the field of fire safety developed by a distinguished specialist, educator, and philosopher Vasily Ivanovich Kozlachkov that were used to develop the “Project of updating of mandatory fire safety requirements” for Priority programme “Reform of control and Supervisory activities”.
The paper presents a Description of the project of updating the mandatory requirements of fire safety, which implements the formula: first, to estimate the amount of damage to protected values, then select (choose or develop) commensurate with the damage of technical requirements of fire safety.
Conclusion. The implementation of the project of updating the mandatory requirements of fire safety will significantly increase the level of protection of people and property, improve the quality of control and supervision activities and reduce administrative pressure on entrepreneurs.
MATHEMATICAL MODELING, NUMERICAL METHODS AND PROGRAM COMPLEXES
Introduction. The article is devoted to solving the interrelated problems of assessing the territorial situation of fires based on the approaches of the integral fire risks theory, the typology of territories on fire situation based on cluster analysis, the optimal distribution of human resources of the fire service in territorial clusters. The optimal distribution is based on the principles of the active systems theory.
Methods. The study was conducted on the materials ofVietnam as a rapidly developing country with a fire situation that is complicated over time and has significant territorial differences. When solving the problem of typology takes into account the complex of factors reflecting economic, social, demographic, climatic indicators as well as indicators that account for the processes of urbanization, electrification, the development of trade and transport, provision of fire services personnel and technical means, characteristics of fires and fire fighting. The problem of typologization ofVietnam’s provinces on characteristics of fire danger is given and its solution with the help of statistical software package Statistica 12 is found. An algorithm for solving the problem of territories typology by complex characteristics of fire danger is presented.
Results. The selected clusters satisty three conditions: compact location inVietnam; similarity of socio-economic conditions and fire situation; similarity of their forces and means parameters. Specific performance indicators of fire service depending on the actual load on firefighter were investigated.
Discussion. The complex specific indicator is formed, taking into account both the dead and injured in fires, which explains 82 % of the statistical data. Based on this indicator the goal function of territorial fire services and system target function that reflect efficiency of use of human resources is offered. Analytical dependences for the optimal distribution of human resources in clusters are found.
Conclusions. Computational experiments have shown that the use of the human resources optimal allocation method developed in the article would reduce the complex specific indicator of the number of deaths and injuries in fires by about 10 12 % compared to the real situation.
Introduction. There is a typical delusion that maintenance of educational activity in a magistracy is simpler, than at the previous stages because the number of trainees is significantly less. Practice has shown that this argument has no reasons; individualization of a trajectory obliges to form documents not for profile group that is feature of training process. Process becomes complicated in departmental educational institutions in connection with target influence of the profile Ministry. Therefore, modeling of information and analytical Master’s management support systems is relevant.
Methods. The results received by the author during the researchers conducted according to plans of research works of State Fire Academy of Emercom ofRussia during 2016 2018 are the basis.
The received new results consist in development of model and algorithms of management support system realizing mechanisms of training profile experts of level magistracy in conditions formation of individual trajectories on return target tasks with the corrected knots.
Results and discussion. Because of researches, the following results are received:
- model of comparison of individual trajectories to criterion function and criteria with floating coefficients and corrected feedback of a target tree of trajectory of the agent player;
- algorithm of creation individual trajectory of training undergraduate considering function of influence target tasks and models development of disciplines is developed;
- management information system of design individual educational trajectory allowing is designed and developed: to automate a designing process of individual educational trajectories and to reveal possible gaps by comparison of two-submultiple counts of model.
Conclusions. The methods applied in the received model allow simplifying decision-making process by preparation of programs and schedules of trajectories of training of undergraduates for the new profile directions and maintenances of current. At the same time, it is considered sets of the internal factors providing resources for the organization of system of planning of process of education and training considering a scientific component.
Introduction. Modem telemetry safety indicators monitoring systems of fire fighting participants and the metrological stmcture of data obtained from such systems determine the need to improve the methodological basis for fire fighters safety management, who work in unsuitable for breathing environment. A research task has been set up. It consists of the development of a safety management model for firefighting in unsuitable for breathing environment on the basis of a general theory of risk management. A method for calculation of the risk magnitude of implementing destructive events associated with a lack of volume of breathing mixture for the successful performance of work in unsuitable for breathing environment was developed in order to cope with this task.
Formal task description and solution method. Officially, the task of the fire fighters safety management for fire-fighting in unsuitable for breathing environment is reduced to determining the risk of implementing an event that the volume of the breathing mixture is not enough to successfully complete the work during the required time period. Quantitative criteria for the successful completion of a set of operations in unsuitable for breathing environment were formed in a deterministic and probabilistic formulations in order to solve this task. The concepts of integral and local risk of the implementation of destructive events associated with the specifics of working in unsuitable for breathing environment were introduced.
Conclusions. The developed probability model of safety management is based on the theoretical background of risk management when working in unsuitable for breathing environment. The model allows to use as initial data the results of safety indicators monitoring obtained from telemetrie systems. The advantage of the probability model is the possibility of varying interval values of safety indicators by changing the magnitude of local and integral risks. An additional useful property of the model is the possibility of a linear positive conversion of the initial probabilistic characteristics, which allows using not only planned figures, but actual values of the parameters included in the model in its practical application.
LIFE SAFETY
The problem of ensuring safety during the fire evacuation of pregnant patients of maternity hospitals is considered. Quantitative data are obtained on the process of their evacuation. The handling of the experimental video material was carried out. The obtained empirical data are processed using the methods of mathematical statistics and the theory of human flows. The parameters describing the relationships between the emotional state, pace and density of the human flow are calculated. It is concluded that the obtained data array will reduce the risk of death of pregnant women in case of a fire situation due to an increase in the accuracy of educated estimates associated with the ensuring of their safety.
QUESTION - ANSWER
ISSN 2587-6201 (Online)