Analysis of fires in the Republic of Kazakhstan by methods of mathematical statistics

Aims. The aim and objective of the study is to adapt the methods of mathematical analysis to the assessment of fire safety of municipal entities of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Methods. The methodological basis of the study is the theory of mathematical statistics. Up to date, the fire safety assessment by means of mathematical statistics has not been carried out in the Republic of Kazakhstan. It is impossible to solve the problem of increasing the level of fire safety in the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan without such studies. Therefore, there is a need to adapt the known methods of mathematical statistics of fire safety in the Republic of Kazakhstan, to carry out such an assessment, which makes it possible to characterize security for 16 regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan that determines the relevance of the study. Applying the methodology of mathematical statistics of fire safety is necessary for making managerial decisions to ensure the necessary level of fire safety of regions on the basis of limit interval values. Results. A sequential mathematical analysis of fire safety in the republic was carried out. On the basis of the results of the study, limit interval values of fire safety for 16 regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan are justified. According to the results of the analysis, it is determined that the interval values of fires for the regions of the republic are 945 < N_f(16) < 1056, in Karaganda, East Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, Kostanay and Almaty regions, the number of fires in the period from 2005 to 2016 were beyond the limits of the right value of the interval. In this connection, the situation with fires was worse in these regions than in the republic. Field of application of scientific results. The obtained results can be used by both local executive and authorized bodies in the field of fire safety when developing appropriate management solutions to reduce the fire risk, as well as when developing a fire fighting service. Conclusion. The conducted mathematical analysis of fire safety in the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan has shown that in the five regions of the republic (Karaganda, East Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, Kostanay and Almaty regions) between 2005 and 2016, the level of fire safety was worse than the average republican rate. In this connection, work on implementation of management decisions to minimize fire danger to the boundaries of the confidence interval should be strengthened in the local executive bodies and authorized bodies in the field of fire safety of these regions. The proposed approach to assessing fire safety levels is advisable to use in the design of fire departments and allocation of funds for the implementation of activities to reduce fire risks in the relevant territories.

математическая статистика, чрезвычайная ситуация, пожар, мониторинг чрезвычайных ситуаций, прогнозирование чрезвычайных ситуаций, эмпирический закон распределения выборки, mathematical statistics, emergency situation, fire, emergencies monitoring, emergencies prediction, empirical law of sample distribution

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