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Пожаровзрывобезопасность/Fire and Explosion Safety

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Модели для расчета эвакуации людей устаревают

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.09.004

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Аннотация

В существующих моделях эвакуации представление о движении людей, как правило, основано на данных, собранных в 1950-1980-х годах, т. е. на данных, которым более 40 лет. С 1970-х годов характеристики населения во всем мире резко изменились. Отчеты показывают, что процент по-жилых людей и показатели ожирения значительно увеличились, и эта тенденция, как прогнозируется, будет продолжаться и в будущем. В недавних исследованиях [1-3] указана величина, до которой различные возрастные группы населения могут снизить общую скорость людского потока. Кроме того, хорошо зарекомендовавшие себя исследования позволили количественно оценить влияние размеров тела на скорость потока [4]. Однако многие существующие модели эвакуации не учитывают меняющихся характеристик населения. Цель настоящей работы - проанализировать существующие демографические данные и динамику потоков населения, вывести ориентировочный коэффициент изменения потока для будущих групп населения и рассмотреть последствия для компьютерных моделей и проектирования зданий в будущем. Перевод. Оригинальная версия: © Peter Thompson, Daniel Nilsson, Karen Boyce, Denise McGrath. Evacuation models are running out of time. Fire Safety Journal, 2015, vol. 78, pp. 251-261. DOI: 10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.09.004.

Об авторах

P. . Thompson
Autodesk Ltd., Farnborough, UK
Россия


D. . Nilsson
Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Россия


K. . Boyce
Ulster University, UK
Россия


D. . Mcgrath
University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Россия


В. В. Холщевников
Академия ГПС МЧС России
Россия


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Для цитирования:


Thompson P..., Nilsson D..., Boyce K..., Mcgrath D..., Холщевников В.В. Модели для расчета эвакуации людей устаревают. Пожаровзрывобезопасность/Fire and Explosion Safety. 2017;26(7):39-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.09.004

For citation:


Thompson P..., Nilsson D..., Boyce K..., Mcgrath D..., Kholshchevnikov V.V. Evacuation models are running out of time. Požarovzryvobezopasnostʹ / Fire and Explosion Safety. 2017;26(7):39-55. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2015.09.004

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