Development of a comprehensive safety management model for explosion and fire hazardous enterprises

Introduction. The rationale is presented and a new direction in the field of organizational risk assessment is formed for the following reasons:

• organizational risks arise and manifest themselves under the managerial influence of the personnel of the management body on the personnel belonging to the category of production structural units, i.e. the nature of their occurrence is information that is characteristically described;
• organizational risks are currently being determined and eliminated independently in certain types of activities (industrial and fire safety, labour protection) that exercise control over the personnel of production structural units. Each type of activity is supervised by Rostechnadzor, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia, and the Ministry of Labour, and reports on accidents, fires, and accidents at work do not contain information about the shortcomings of personnel in a particular area of safety in which such a risk arose and manifested itself in a dangerous event.

Purpose and objectives. The aim is to develop a model for assessing organizational risks in the integrated safety system at explosion and fire hazardous enterprises based on the orthogonality of the systems. A norm orthogonal model was developed to assess organizational risks in explosion and fire hazardous enterprises. Attention is focused on the reliability of the results obtained based on the construction of orthogonal systems, and an example is presented with the possibility of using the developed model in practice.

Methods. To solve the problems, the use of expert methods is justified, which will allow converting qualitative characteristics into a quantitative measure. The use of the prioritization method used in conjunction with the Gaussian probability distribution functional is substantiated. A model is proposed, displayed on an orthogonal plane by a directional vector, which represents the state of the integrated security system over the estimated period.

Conclusions. The rationale for the application of a group of expert methods and the method of directed vectors on an orthogonal plane is presented; their use makes it possible to obtain indicators of the impact of safety trends on the overall state of the integrated safety system of explosion- and fire-hazardous enterprises. An example is shown that makes it possible to prove the adequacy of using the model in practice for risk assessment.

1. Gvozdev E.V. Assessment of organizational risks in the integrated safety system at explosion- and fire-hazardous enterprises using the expert method. Technology of technosphere safety. 2025; 2(108):46-61. DOI: 10.25257/TTS.2025.2.108.46-61. EDN ROZXES. (rus).

2. Gvozdev E.V. Methodology of risk assessment in the system of integrated safety designed to prevent accidents and fires at explosion and fire-hazardous enterprises. Pozharovzryvobezopasnost’/Fire and explosion safety. 2025; 34(1):59-69. DOI: 10.22227/0869-7493.2025.34.01.59-69. EDN QBBBIK. (rus).

3. Mkrtchyan L., Sansavini G., Straub U., Giachino M., Kocher T. Insurability risk assessment of oil refineries using Bayesian Belief Networks. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries. 2022; 74:104673. DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2021.104673. EDN UCLFFE.

4. Abrosimov N.V., Ageev A.I., Adushkin V.V., Akimov V.A., Aleshin A.V., Aleshin N.P. et al. Security of Russia. Legal, socio-economic and scientific-technical aspects. Scientific foundations of technogenic safety. Moscow, Znanie, 2015; 935. EDN UFPJBT. (rus).

5. Makhutov N.A., Matvienko Yu.G., Romanov A.N., Arkhipov V.E., Akhmetkhanov R.S., Balashova A.V. et al. Problems of Strength, Technogenic Safety, and Structural Materials Science / ed. by N.A. Makhutov, Yu.G. Matvienko, A.N. Romanov. Moscow, Lenand, 2018; 720. EDN YPBGTB. (rus).

6. Grazhdankin A.I. Hazard analysis and risk assessment of major accidents in the oil, gas and coal industries : dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Technical Sciences. Moscow, 2016; 340. EDN YPBGTB. (rus).

7. Shargatov V.A., Sumskoi S.I., Pecherkin A.S. Simulation of gas release from pipelines using a new numerical method based on the Godunov approach. Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 2019; 1205:012050. DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1205/1/012050. EDN UHNXAG.

8. Oxman V.S., Tkachenko V.M., Fomintsova A.V., Grazhdankin A.I. On the methodological support for improvement of the state supervision over industrial safety conditions at objects of mining, metallurgical production, and explosive in use. Occupational safety in industry. 2024; 5:26-35. DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2024-5-26-35. EDN USPYYF. (rus.).

9. Poroshin A.A., Udavtsova E.Yu., Bobrinev E.V., Kondashov A.A., Kharin V.V. Assessment of fire hazard level of industrial objects based on the statistic methods. Assessment of the fire hazard level of industrial facilities based on statistical methods. Occupational safety in industry. 2020; 3:12-17. DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2020-3-12-17. EDN JFAOHU. (rus).

10. Vishnevsky V.P., Matyushin A.V., Stel’makhova N.V. Tax Regulation of Economic Growth in the Context of Post-Crisis Recovery: Problems and Prospects. Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2025; 36(1):66-76. DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724700539. EDN RSSKTK.

11. Denisov A.N., Poroshin A.A., Danilov M.M., Vlasov K.S., Meshalkin E.A., Shevtsov M.V. Genesis of development, modern realities of scientific, methodological and normative legal substantiation of the concepts of “large fire”, “complex (protracted) fire”. Pozharovzryvobezopasnost/Fire and explosion safety. 2025; 34(2):5-19. DOI: 10.22227/0869-7493.2025.34.02.5-19. EDN XVYUPE. (rus).

12. Akimov V., Bedilo M., Derendiaeva O., Ivanova E., Oltyan I. Forecast of natural emergency situations with modern methods. Reliability: Theory & Application. 2022; S4(70):71-77. DOI: 10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-71-77. EDN HHARCO. (rus.).

13. Akimov V., Ivanova E., Oltyan I. Statistical models for forecasting emergency situations of a biological and social character. Reliability: Theory & Applications. 2023; 4(76):41-45. DOI: 10.24412/1932-2321-2023-476-41-45

14. Gvozdev E.V. Methodology of rational-targeted development of an integrated security system at enterprises of the oil and gas complex of Russia : dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Technical Sciences. 2023; 257. EDN PIFCBH. (rus).

15. Gvozdev E.V. Justification of the expediency of creating an integrated safety system at explosive and fire-hazardous enterprises. Problems of technosphere risk management. 2024; 4(72):102-118. DOI: 10.61260/1998-8990-2025-2024-4-­102-118. EDN AVIMVQ. (rus).

16. Gvozdev E.V. A rational-targeted model for the development of an integrated safety and security system at oil and gas enterprises in Russia. Real Estate: Economics, Management. 2023; 1:33-38. DOI: 10.22337/2073-8412-2023-1-33-38. EDN TBGRUN.

17. Angermeier D., Wester H., Beilke K., Hansch G., Eichler J. Security Risk Assessments: Modeling and Risk Level Propagation. ACM Transactions on Cyber-Physical Systems. 2023; 7(1):1-25. DOI: 10.1145/3569458

18. Voronin A.A., Gubko M.V., Mishin S.P., Novikov D.A. Mathematical models of organizations : textbook, 2nd ed., stereotype. Moscow, LENAND, 2019; 360. (rus).

19. Gvozdev E.V. Analysis of organizational risk and assessment methods at explosion- and fire-hazardous enterprises. Occupational safety in industry. 2025; 7:48-55. DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2025-7-48-55. EDN BBJSON. (rus).

20. Moiseev N.N. Mathematical Problems of Systems Analysis : а Tutorial, 3rd ed., suppl. Synergetics: from past to future. Moscow, LIBROKOM Book House, 2013; 532:55. (rus).

21. D’Este P., Robinson-García N. Interdisciplinary research and the societal visibility of science: The advantages of spanning multiple and distant scientific fields. Research Policy. 2023; 52(2):104609. DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2022.104609. EDN YSGENA.

22. Gapanovich I.V., Lapteva U.V., Nikolaeva D.R. Mathematical Foundations of Information Systems : a Tutorial. Tyumen, Tyumen Industrial University, 2020; 295. EDN FPGSSG. (rus).

23. Gvozdev E.V. Integrated safety management of Russian oil and gas enterprises using the complex numbers method. Occupational safety in industry. 2023; 5:46-51. DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2023-5-46-51. EDN ENTDND. (rus).

24. Blagoveshchenskaya E.A., Garbaruk V.V., Rodin V.I. Mathematical models of dynamic links : Modeling workshop. St. Petersburg, Petersburg State University, 2021; 38. EDN GKTNIA. (rus).

25. Sizova T.M. Statistics : a textbook. St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg National Research University ITMO, 2013; 176. URL: https://books.ifmo.ru/file/pdf/1332.pdf (rus).

26. Budin V.I. Mathematical Foundations of Automation and Control : а Textbook for Students of Technical Universities. Samara, Samara State Technical University, 2016; 119. URL: https://rusneb.ru/catalog/000200_000018_RU_NLR_BIBL_A_011274364/?ysclid=mj6xxp1xu179220627

27. Androshchuk A., Yevseiev S., Melenchuk V., Lemeshko O., Lemeshko V. Improvement of project risk assessment methods of implementation of automated information components of non-commercial organizational and technical systems. Eureka: Physics and Engineering. 2020; 1:48-55. DOI: 10.21303/2461-4262.2020.001131. EDN GYWITG.

28. Kabanov E.I. Expert system for the comprehensive express assessment of risk of accidents and occupational risks in coal mines. Mining information and Analytical Bulletin : Scientific and Technical Journal. 2019; S7:78-86. DOI: 10.25018/0236-1493-2019-4-7-78-86. EDN ZUKIOD. (rus).

29. Unver S., Ergenc I. Safety risk identification and prioritize of forest logging activities using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Alexandria Engineering Journal. 2021; 60(1):1591-1599. DOI: 10.1016/j.aej.2020.11.012. EDN JQZEVU.