Analysis of the applicability of fire prevention system management models

Introduction. In modern conditions, the regulation of the fire situation is carried out through the implementation of two main directions: prevention and the creation of a fire safety system. The creation of a fire safety system is provided by the owner of the facility, and fire prevention issues are provided by a wide range of subjects.

Goals and objectives. The purpose of the research is to find a management model for the fire prevention system that regulates the situation with fires and their consequences.

Materials and methods. An expert survey was conducted, and 4 mathematical models for regulating the fire situation were formulated. Verification and interpretation of the results are provided, while only one mathematical model based on the relationship between fire prevention and integral fire risks corresponds to the condition of applicability in modern practice. The methods of statistical analysis (variance, correlation and regression) of the data were applied in the course of the study.

Results and their discussion. Comparison of the magnitude of integral fire risks is possible only for territories where a uniform fire accounting procedure is provided. The classification of municipalities into three main groups (urban, mixed and rural) is substantiated, in which the level of relationship between the amount of preventive work and the magnitude of integral fire risks has significant differences.
The highest level of correlation is observed between the amount of preventive work and the risk of a person dying in a fire. And the value of the coefficient of determination is at an acceptable level (more than 0.5) only for settlements of the “mixed” and “rural” types.

Conclusions. To manage the organizational system of fire prevention, a model based on the relationship between the magnitude of fire risks and the amount of preventive work based on statistical analysis methods is acceptable. The proposed model has a statistical error of about 20 %, which is acceptable for short-term forecasts. However, it should be borne in mind that this model does not have sufficient reliability to assess a similar relationship in urban settlements.

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