Fundamental problems of applying fire risk calculation. The necessity and possibilities of its optimization

Introduction. In recent years, much attention has been paid to the risk-based approach in the field of fire safety and, in particular, the calculation of fire risk has been widely used. The approaches and methods of such calculations have become considerably more complicated. However, the presence of a number of problems indicates the need to limit the use of fire risk calculation and optimize it, taking into account the prevailing realities of practical application.

Goals and objectives. The purpose of the paper is to identify existing problems in the calculation of fire risk and their impact on the results of such calculations, including the correctness and possibility of applying design solutions that they justify. In addition, one of the tasks is to find ways to optimize and simplify the calculation in order to reduce the time and material costs of its implementation, high-quality verification by regulatory authorities while maintaining the necessary accuracy of the engineering assessment.

The main part. The normative bases and prerequisites for the emergence of computational methods for assessing fire risk are considered. The existing problems of modern application of such calculations are described, including inconsistencies and distortions in the regulatory field, the lack of necessary elements of compliance with the concept of correct assessment (result error, lack of rules in the field of software products and qualifications of specialists, etc.), the lack of verification and, as a result, the inability to assess the correctness of design decisions made in accordance with the calculation. Approaches for optimization of calculations are proposed. A model of evacuation of people is described and a computer programme for its implementation is tested. The calculation of the model object is performed.

Conclusions. The problems described in this paper indicate a significant imperfection of the fire risk calculation tool, which, in turn, does not allow it to be used to justify many design solutions that are currently justified by such a calculation. At the same time, the corresponding calculation methods should develop not only along the path of complication, but also have the possibility of optimization in terms of practical application and verification of calculation results. In addition, taking into account the current situation, it is natural to limit its application for a number of cases, at least until the necessary accuracy is achieved, or appropriate legal mechanisms are developed that allow neglecting the presence of a large error and regulating the scope of application of techniques, software and the work of relevant specialists.

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