Optimization of management decisions during search and rescue operations

Introduction. Effective application of forces and means of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia for solving a wide range of tasks according to the intended purpose to a great extent depends on the activity of the management system of the department connected with the development of optimal decisions and plans. The head of the appropriate level of management of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Fede­ration when making a decision faces the need to develop optimal ways of action of subordinate forces and means in the expected conditions of the situation. The use of methods of decision-making theory and operations research in such conditions is the most pragmatic approach.

Aims and purposes. Finding the optimal plan for detecting the victim of a catastrophe object in the emergency zone in the shortest possible time and with a minimum number of casualties is an optimization problem, which should be solved using known mathematical methods (methods of operations research). This problem can be formulated as follows: to determine the optimal sequence of traversal of the search area of the object in the disaster zone in the shortest possible time.

Methods. Two methods were used to solve the problem: the method of dynamic programming (DP) and an ap­­pro­ximate method obtained experimentally. Using the R. Bellman functional equation, a mathematical model for predicting different variants of event development and finding the optimal variant of the problem solution was constructed.

Results and discussions. The article considers the methods of optimization of decisions during search and rescue operations in the emergency zone in order to support managerial decision-making in the operational activity of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia. The method of finding the optimal plan of surveying the areas of the search area of the object is proposed using the method of DP. Calculations with specific initial data for drawing up the optimal route of object search in the shortest possible time are given. The approximate method of finding the optimal sequence of detour of object search areas with a slight simplification of initial data is proposed, which is proved experimentally on different examples and with different initial data.

Conclusions. Mathematical modelling is successfully applied in tasks of optimization of processes of management of forces and means of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia. Methods of operations research are also used in solving the problems of operational activity of the Ministry, which use DP for step-by-step finding the optimal variant of management decision.

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