Simulation modelling and decision criteria for fire protection of public buildings

Introduction. Flexible rationing determines the design objectives of the fire protection system of the object, and the ways to achieve them are chosen by the designer. The fulfilment of the set task is confirmed by the verification of criteria. The purpose of the article is to show the possibilities of using simulation modelling to implement the objectives of flexible rationing of fire protection systems of public buildings.

Theoretical foundations of simulation modelling. It is proposed to take into account individual fire risk and the risk of material losses in case of fire during simulation modelling. To draw one random fire scenario, an approved procedure for calculating individual fire risk is used, which is included in the main block. The list of random input variables, the areas of their change, the drawing of values, the processing of simulation results, the choice of solutions based on the results obtained, modelling control is carried out in the second block of the simulation system.

Results and their discussion. The application of simulation modelling is justified for the choice of rational decisions on fire safety. The designer based on the conditions of the object and fire safety requirements can choose the criterion and system of object protection by solving a multi-criteria problem. Models for assessing the reliabi­lity of the use of primary fire extinguishing means, fire extinguishing by the fire brigade in the fire centre, reliability of fire protection building structures, fire doors, separate or as part of fire barriers are proposed. The system of criteria is formulated, including the following criteria: individual fire risk, reduced costs, “evacuation time reserve”, necessary evacuation time.

On the basis of statistics obtained as a result of simulation modelling, the designer determines the required indicators. The formula for calculating the number of tests depending on the accuracy of determining the mathe­matical expectation, dispersion of random values of statistical parameters is given.

Conclusions. It is proposed to use Monte Carlo simulation modelling in the framework of flexible rationing when designing fire protection systems. Decision-making criteria that take into account the characteristics of fire risks are systematized. Calculated estimates of the effectiveness of a number of fire-fighting measures are given.

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