канд. техн. наук, профессор кафедры защиты населения и территорий.
196105, r. Санкт-Петербург, Московский просп., 149.
Candidate of Technical Sciences, Professor of Population and Territory Protection Department.
Moscowskiy Avenue, 149, Saint Petersburg, 196105.
канд. воен. наук, профессор кафедры защиты населения и территорий.
196105, r. Санкт-Петербург, Московский просп., 149.
канд. юр. наук, начальник кафедры защиты населения и территорий.
196105, r. Санкт-Петербург, Московский просп., 149.
PhD, профессор.
Сербия, 21000, г. Нови Сад, ул. Сколска, 1.
PhD, Professor.
Školska, 1, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia.
Проведена оценка положений руководящих документов и подходов, используемых для прогнозирования пожароопасной обстановки, реализации мероприятий по предупреждению и ликвидации чрезвычайных ситуаций. В ходе анализа установлены недостатки существующих методик определения показателей пожарной опасности. Предложено ввести в расчеты соответствующие поправочные коэффициенты. Указаны недостатки определения геометрических характеристик лесного пожара; предложено использовать геометрические фигуры, в большей степени соответствующие форме лесного пожара. Разработаны и предложены основные направления совершенствования комплекса мероприятии, направленных на предотвращение лесных пожаров и смягчение их последствии.
Introduction. The woods have the crucial functions on decrease of negative impact natural and anthropogenous character to the ecosystems of Earth. As difficult objects of research, the woods depend on a host of factors but unfortunately it is paid attention not to all of them, especially when forecasting of fire situation in the woods. Research objective — carrying out of an analysis of modern forecasting methods of fire-dangerous situation and development of the recommendations for improvement of complex of activities for prevention and mitigation of consequences of forest fires.
Methods. The leading documents and approaches used for forecasting of fire-dangerous situation, realization of actions for the prevention and elimination of emergency situations were analyzed.
Results. It is evaluated that the method of calculation of fire hazard index under the terms of weather determined by the order of Federal Forestry Agency doesn’t consider the speed of a wind and accumulated precipitation that has essential impact on reliability of the defined degree of fire hazard. For the elimination of this shortcoming it is offered to use corresponding correction coefficients. Geometrical characteristics of forest fire have essential impact on a choice of methods of fire extinguishing. The technique of landscape fire extinguishing used simplifies its form to a square that leads to increase of calculations error and decrease efficiency of planning and carrying out of accident rescue works. It is offered to use an ellipsoid or sector which calculation of the areas isn’t required difficult mathematical calculations, but possesses a sufficient share of accuracy. Improvement of a complex of organizational, legal and engineering and technical measures is directed on increase of efficiency of implementation of measures for the prevention and fight against forest fires.
Conclusion. The research allows to make a conclusion that the existing methods and actions not fully ensure safety of the population and territories at threat of emergence of natural fires. The offered measures directed on improvement of the available expected methods will allow to increase efficiency of the forecast and realization of accident and rescue works during natural fires.
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.