Рассмотрена возможность исследования опасностей, связанных с отказами в работе специальной техники в ходе ликвидации чрезвычайных ситуаций. Предложена методика оценки рисков с применением теории очередей и систем массового обслуживания. Выработаны практические рекомендации для повышения надежности работы специальной техники. Приведены расчеты, которые позволяют на практике предварительно учитывать риски, связанные с временно не работающей и восстанавливаемой специальной техникой, и, следовательно, управлять этими рисками для поддержания постоянной высокой готовности сил и средств пожарно-спасательных подразделений Федеральной противопожарной службы МЧС России, повышения их надежности в ходе ликвидации ЧС и проведения аварийно-спасательных работ. Обоснован вывод формул, на которых базируется методика; приведены примеры ее практической реализации. Сформулирован круг задач оперативной деятельности МЧС России, решить которые можно с применением представленной методики.
The most important condition for the timely deployment of the management system, its efficient and high-quality operation in the course of emergency rescue operations by the units of Emercom of Russia is to ensure the constant readiness of personnel and technical means of managing forces and assets in a complex fire situation. For this purpose, it is required to determine in advance the necessary composition of forces and assets and to analyze their reliability in work during the liquidation of emergencies. Activities of technical operation should ensure the timely and trouble-free operation of special technical means (STM). The use of a significant number of STM leads to inevitable failures, both of technical means and personnel. The failure of the STM, as well as of all types of servicing facilities, occurs for a number of reasons, the main of which are: malfunctions arising in the course of application as intended; damage during transportation; exposure to adverse conditions. The specificity of the joint influence of many factors on the possibility of timely, trouble-free and error-free application of STM is usually assessed by quantitative characteristics relating to indicators of reliability and risk. Therefore, the task of preliminary assessment of risks, their accounting and further elimination, connected with the use of “unreliable”, that is temporarily in a non-working condition or in the state of repair, special equipment of fire-rescue units, is urgent. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the possibility of assessing the risks caused by failures in the work of special technical means during the liquidation of emergencies. The article proposes a methodology for risk assessment using queuing theory and queuing systems with failures. Practical recommendations have been developed to increase the reliability of the STM operation. There are calculations that allow in practice to take into account the risks associated with a temporarily idle and recoverable STM, and therefore, manage risks to maintain a constant high readiness of the forces and means of fire and rescue units of the Federal Fire Fighting Service of Emercom of Russia, increase their reliability in the process of liquidation of emergencies and carrying out rescue operations. The conclusion of formulas on which the method is based is proved; examples of its practical implementation are given.
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.