Предложена математическая модель возникновения и развития больших переходных сопротивлений в электропроводке автомобильного транспорта. Показано, что аварийные режимы в электросети автомобиля, связанные с большими переходными сопротивлениями, являются наиболее опасными, так как защиты от их возникновения не существует, а процесс развития большого переходного сопротивления может привести к искрению, короткому замыканию и т. д. С помощью предложенной модели разработаны методики оценки вероятности возникновения аварийных режимов, связанных с большими переходными сопротивлениями, что может привести к возникновению пожара в легковом автомобиле. Предложенная модель позволит эксперту принимать решения при формулировании выводов при производстве пожарно-технических экспертиз. Показано, что данные исследования могут оказать существенную помощь эксперту в установлении очага, причины и оценке развития пожара.
After arsons, the main reason for the fires on motor transport is emergency operation of operation of the power supply network (short circuit, overload of electricity cables and big transitional resistance). For Russia it is typical that the cars made 10-20 years ago constantly continue to be operated. The electrical wiring of such cars has a bad condition and often becomes a cause of the fire. Besides, even new cars are equipped with the additional alarm system, powerful musical and video equipment, systems of heating and ventilation, additional headlights. And contacts of the additional equipment often are made in the handicraft way that can lead to big transitional resistance and be a cause of the fire. Studying of nature of emergence and development of big transitional resistance, the techniques of an assessment of probability of emergence of the emergency operation, which connected with the big transitional resistance (BPS), leading to emergence of the fire in the car, will allow to create new recommendations, requirements in the field of fire safety which needs to be considered, to be changed taking into account a tendency of development of the motor transport. The accidents modes in the car power supply networks connected with big transition resistances are the most dangerous, as protection against their emergence does not exist, and development of big transition resistance can lead to sparking, short circuit and other ignition sources. At the same time, the initial reason of emergence of the fire is leveled, in process of the fire and suppression. In article, the stochastic model of the analysis of the emergency modes arising in the power supply network of cars is offered. The Markov model including several absorbing states will allow to calculate to what of the absorbing states the chain will get earlier (or later); in what of them process will stop more often and in what - is more rare. The developed model allows to analyses probability of emergence of the fire from the electric reasons connected with big transitional resistance that allows to make the correct conclusions by production of fire investigations.
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.