Проведена оценка эффективности принятия управленческих решений с использованием математических моделей возникновения и развития пожара на открытых автостоянках. Показано, что внутри открытых автостоянок пожарные расстояния не регламентируются, но от структурирования пожарной нагрузки, расстояния между автомобилями и группами автомобилей зависит развитие горения. Рассмотрены физические процессы развития горения автомобилей и распространения пожара на автостоянке. На основании анализа предложена математическая модель, позволяющая с использованием математического аппарата теории вероятности проанализировать условия, определяющие характер зажигания и распространение горения на автостоянке в зависимости от характеристики источника зажигания, пожарной нагрузки и окислителя. Предложена математическая модель оценки структурирования пожарной нагрузки на открытых автостоянках, позволяющая принимать эффективные управленческие решения при тушении на них пожаров.
The efficiency evaluation of acceptance of management decisions in case of the emergency situation connected with the fire is carried out. In the course of acceptance of management decisions the large role is played by information on the correct development evaluations of the fire. In article it is shown that in open car parks fire distances aren’t regulated. However, from structuring fire loading, distance between cars and groups of cars, burning development will depend. Structuring fire loading is considered one of the major dangerous factors influencing features of distribution of the fire. Structuring combustible loading depends on distance between fire-dangerous objects. Fire-proof distances are the rated distances between objects regulated for prevention of distribution of the fire between them. Determination “fire - proof distances” regulates safe distances between the seat of fire and fire-dangerous objects. This distance excludes distribution of the fire from the place of emergence of burning on surrounding combustible objects with use of mathematical models of origin and development of the fire on open car parks. In work physical processes of emergence of burning of cars and distribution of the fire on car park are considered. Based on the carried-out analysis the mathematical model allowing is offered, using a mathematical apparatus of probability theory, to analyse the conditions determining nature of ignition and distribution of burning on car park depending on the characteristic of a source of ignition, fire loading and an oxidizer. The parking is considered as the model lattice covering the researched area. At the same time, burning is considered as process of distribution (course) of a flame through a certain environment. The theory of a perсolation allows connecting very large number of objects provided that communication of each object with the neighbors has accidental character, but at the same time is set by quite certain method (the fixed number of cars on car park can depend on weather, temporary and social data). The mathematical model of assessment of structuring fire loading on open car parks allowing to make effective management decision in case of fire extinguishing on open car parks is offered.
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.