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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">firesmi</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Пожаровзрывобезопасность/Fire and Explosion Safety</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Pozharovzryvobezopasnost/Fire and Explosion Safety</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0869-7493</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2587-6201</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ФГБОУ ВО «Национальный исследовательский Московский государственный строительный университет»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22227/0869-7493.2025.34.01.59-69</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">firesmi-1475</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ ЗДАНИЙ, СООРУЖЕНИЙ, ОБЪЕКТОВ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>SAFETY OF BUILDINGS, STRUCTURES, OBJECTS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Методика оценки рисков в системе комплексной безопасности, предназначенной для предупреждения аварий и пожаров на взрывопожароопасных предприятиях</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Methodology of risk assessment in the system of integrated safety designed to prevent accidents and fires at explosion and fire hazardous enterprises</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3679-1065</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Гвоздев</surname><given-names>Е. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Gvozdev</surname><given-names>E. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>ГВОЗДЕВ Евгений Владимирович, к.т.н., доцент кафедры механизации, автоматизации и роботизации строительства</p><p>129337, г. Москва, Ярославское шоссе, 26</p><p>РИНЦ AuthorID: 296055</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Evgeniy V. GVOZDEV, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Associate Professor of the Department of Mechanization, Automation and Robotization of Construction</p><p>Yaroslavskoe Shosse, 26, Moscow, 129337</p><p>RSCI AuthorID: 296055</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">evgvozdev@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Национальный исследовательский Московский государственный строительный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (National Research University)</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>02</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>34</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>59</fpage><lpage>69</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Гвоздев Е.В., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Гвоздев Е.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Gvozdev E.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.fire-smi.ru/jour/article/view/1475">https://www.fire-smi.ru/jour/article/view/1475</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Введение</title><p>Введение. Представлено обоснование и сформировано направление для проведения научного исследования, связанного с изучением новых свойств управляемой системы, в которой осуществляется сложный процесс по влиянию персонала отдельных видов безопасности и персонала производственных структурных подразделений на общее состояние системы комплексной безопасности.</p></sec><sec><title>Цель и задачи</title><p>Цель и задачи. Основная цель состоит в разработке методики оценки рисков, предназначенной для совершенствования системы комплексной безопасности на взрывопожароопасных предприятиях. Для решения трех научных задач по оценке рисков, оказывающих влияние на общее состояние системы комплексной безопасности, определены следующие направления:</p></sec><sec><title>Методы</title><p>Методы. Для решения задач обосновано использование экспертных методов, которые позволят преобразовать качественные характеристики в количественную меру. Обосновано использование метода расстановки приоритетов, используемого совместно с функционалом вероятностного распределения Гаусса. Предложено использовать пятиразрядную пропорционально убывающую матрицу для оценки рисков при невыполнении требований нормативных правовых актов (НПА) и нормативных документов (НД).</p></sec><sec><title>Выводы</title><p>Выводы. 1. Представлено обоснование по применению группы экспертных методов, использование которых позволяет получить показатели влияния персонала, работающего на предприятиях, на общее состо­яние системы комплексной безопасности. 2. Продемонстрирован пример, позволяющий доказать адекватность использования группы экспертных методов, их возможности в использовании на практике для оценки рисков.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Introduction. Substantiation is presented and the direction for scientific research related to the study of new properties of the controlled system, in which a complex process of influence of the personnel of separate types of security and personnel of production structural units on the general state of the system of complex security is carried out.</p></sec><sec><title>Aim and objectives</title><p>Aim and objectives. The main objective is to develop a risk assessment methodology designed to improve the system of integrated safety at explosion and fire hazardous enterprises. To solve the three scientific tasks on the assessment of risks influencing the general condition of the system of complex safety, the following directions are defined:</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Methods. For the decision of problems use of expert methods which will allow to transform qualitative characte­ristics in a quantitative measure is grounded. The use of the method of prioritization used together with the Gauss probability distribution functional is justified. It is suggested to use a five-digit proportionally decreasing matrix for risk assessment in case of non-compliance with the requirements of normative legal acts (NLA) and normative documents (ND).</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Conclusions. 1. The justification for the application of a group of expert methods, the use of which allows to obtain indicators of the impact of personnel working at enterprises on the overall state of the system of integrated security is presented. 2. The example, allowing to prove adequacy of use of group of expert methods, their possibilities in use in practice for an estimation of risks is demonstrated.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>методика оценки</kwd><kwd>состояние системы</kwd><kwd>качество влияния</kwd><kwd>информационная модель</kwd><kwd>эмерджентность</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>evaluation methodology</kwd><kwd>system state</kwd><kwd>quality of influence</kwd><kwd>information model</kwd><kwd>emergent nature</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Гвоздев Е.В. Обоснование по выбору экспертного метода для проведения оценки состояния системы комп­лексной безопасности на производственных предприятиях // Пожаровзрывобезопасность/Fire and Explosion Safety. 2024. Т. 33. № 3. С. 87–96. DOI: 10.22227/0869-7493.2024.33.03.87-96. 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